Khamenei's Speech: Prelude to a Bloodbath

Today is Friday, sort of the Islamic Sabbath (not really, but for Westerners it's a helpful analogy). Today, Supreme Leader Khamenei gave a sermon at Tehran University, where ironically, just a few days ago a number of students were beaten at random and some were killed.

Here are my sources on this historically important speech: The NY Times, Amnesty International, Aljazeera, the Huffington Post here and here, and here's an English translation of the speech. However, most important of all is this brilliant piece from the Council on Foreign Relations (never mind the date - it's been updated to reflect the speech).

All of these sources are worth reading, but you should definitely read the piece from the CFR. In fact, I'd rather you read that piece than this blog post. It's absolutely brilliant and spot on. (It's pretty much everything I've been saying.) But I'm still going to post about the speech anyway.

The most significant thing about the speech is that it contained a warning to the opposition that they should get ready for a bloodbath. Everything I've read about the speech agrees on that point.

Some think this will bring the protests to an end. That's simply untrue. Events of the last couple of days shows us that violence only strengthens the opposition. Not only that, but the CFR piece reminds us of what happened 30 years ago when the Shah of Iran cracked down on the opposition violently: protests "mushroomed".

Listen, I don't like violence anymore than you do. Violence is evil and bad. It should be avoided. But revolutions are always founded on the blood of martyrs. What revolution has ever happened in the history of the world that hasn't had much blood shed to accompany it? Our own Revolutionary War cost many lives, as did our Civil War, which was arguably revolutionary.

But listen: let's not have an American knee-jerk reaction to the violence in Iran. Rather, let us sit in quiet awe of the bravery of the Iranian people who valiantly strap on their green ribbons and walk out their front door to face they know not what in the streets where they live. Let us watch with tears in our eyes, and let us pray that it will all be over soon, and that the Supreme Leader will fall, and his office with him. The Iranian people think that that's worth dying for. I agree with them. Once upon a time, Americans thought there were some things worth dying for. So let us sit back and watch respectfully and honorably as a courageous people reinvent themselves at tremendous cost.

There will be much more violence to come. Let us not lose heart at this critical time. The Iranian people will need our support and encouragement, not our cries to bring it all to an end. Such cries will only make them lose heart when they need it most.

And how are the protesters reacting? The Huffington Report says, "In reaction to Khamenei's address hours later, cries of 'Death to the dictator! and 'Allahu akbar!' ('God is great!') resounded from rooftops throughout Tehran after dark - similar to other nights this week following rallies supporting reformist candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi."

What do they mean "dictator"? Who are they referring to: Ahmadinejad or Khamenei? I rather think it's Khamenei, since, after all, they have not been saying that all week, but this is clearly in reaction to Khamenei's speech. That the people have been crying "God is great!" from the rooftops is pregnant with meaning. This was what they did 30 years ago in rebellion against the Shah. This is an Islamic creed, a profession of faith. At the same time, it is a crying out to God for justice. No matter what your religious conviction, the video below is moving when seen in this light.

Revolution is brewing in Iran.