Former Iranian Revolutionary Guard Speaks Out

Foreign Affairs is a very well respected professional journal on US foreign policy. It is widely read in Washington DC.

Suzanne Maloney has recently written an excellent piece on the situation in Iran, with which I was very impressed. She also gives this list of required reading on Iran.

She also recommends an author named Akbar Ganji. She writes:

Akbar Ganji’s biography itself offers a trenchant commentary on the ebb and flow of ideological orthodoxy in the Islamic Republic. Having served during the regime’s early years in the Revolutionary Guards and the fearsome Intelligence Ministry, Ganji progressively became disenchanted. By the mid-1990s, he had transformed himself into an influential political journalist, assailing Iran’s senior leadership in newspaper columns on the regime’s excesses. Arrested in 2000, he later spent nearly six years in prison, where his fate attracted worldwide attention. Today, Ganji remains passionate about realizing a genuine representative state in Iran, although he effectively lives in exile. These writings present his erudite denunciation of Iran’s current system and his effort to chart a path forward.

Quite an endorsement. He has also written an article recently for Foreign Affairs. It's a very good read, and brief. He writes:

This is nothing less than an electoral coup, and its aim goes far beyond bringing victory to Ahmadinejad; it is a full-fledged takeover of the state...one of Khamenei's central goals is to create a new unified ruling elite with vast political and economic power. Khamenei and his supporters have been snuffing out dissent among intellectuals, political parties, labor unions, clerical seminaries, and civil society groups. They have been enhancing ideological uniformity at the senior level of government by defaming previously high-ranking officials, such as former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. They have also been extending their control over state corporations, large industries, and banks in a bid to create a state-run form of capitalism that would benefit them.

Wow. That's much the same thing that Reza Aslan is saying. Our gut reaction to things like this is to smile and say, "Ah, you're just a conspiracy theorist." But this is being said by a lot of people who have a LOT of credibility, lots of credentials - people who know what they're talking about. We in the West need to open our eyes.

Of course, once we realize the truth, then usually people in the US say, "Yes, let's topple their government just like we did to Iraq!" That's not the right reaction. Toppling Iran, believe it or not, would be VASTLY more difficult than toppling Iraq. It would take much, much longer. It would be a lot of urban warfare. A lot of American troops would die. It took Americans about a month to grow weary of the war in Iraq. Americans have a very weak stomach. This is not the 1940's anymore, when everyone pitched in for the war effort. We live in a different world. Many, many people in the US are squeamish about warfare, and as soon as someone dies they'll be screaming for it all to be over, for it all to end. They will stop caring about what's at stake, choosing instead to just be offended at the shedding of blood. Our country has forgotten that there are some things worth dying for.

We can't go to war with Iran. We don't have the stomach for it. We don't have the troops for it. We're not willing to pay for it. If we go to war with Iran, they'll win. But that doesn't mean we shouldn't understand what's taking place there.

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The Arcane Art of Khamenei Watching

Tehran Bureau has a brilliant and fascinating piece analyzing the current situation in Iran. Here's my favorite part:

For those steeped in the arcane art of Khamenei-watching, June 19 holds a special significance. On that day, after issuing his much-anticipated ultimatum to the people of Iran, the Supreme Leader showed a side of himself never before seen in public: while finishing his blood-soaked sermon with a vow of martyrdom, instead of looking bold and defiant, he looked weak and pathetic. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the man whose mien has inspired fear and awe in millions of people, actually had a lump in his throat. He fought back tears before tens of millions of bemused and perplexed viewers because in less than three weeks’ time, a system he had helped perfect — rule by a supreme religious leader — was showing signs of unraveling.

Read more here.

Understanding Shia Islam: Why Violence Won't End Protests

This is fascinating: "The Shia, as we collectively know them, began life as a political protest over who should succeed the Prophet Muhammad after his death."

If you can understand what that means, then you can understand why the government crackdown in Iran is not going to end the protests in Iran like it did in China in 1989 at Tiananman Square.

So what does it mean? Well, basically, Islam was founded by a guy named Muhammed. Everyone knows that, right? Well, he wasn't just a prophet, but he was kind of a king too of all Muslims. They called this the Caliph. When he died, there was a question of who should succeed him. This accounts for the difference between Shia Muslims and Sunni Muslims.

The Shia thought that only the descendants of Muhammed ought to succeed him as Caliph. The Sunni disagreed. That's an over simplification and a bit anachronistic though. At that time, there weren't Sunni and Shia, there were just Muslims, some of whom had very strong opinions about who should be Caliph.

Well, the Shia didn't get their way, and a usurper (in their opinion) became Caliph. During the turbulent 50 years or so following the death of Muhammed in 632, there was an important descendant of Muhammed who was killed, and the Shia have been exalting martyrs ever since.

How does this fit in to what's going on in Iran? Well, Ahmadinejad has now found himself in the unfortunate position of being seen as an illegitimate usurper in a religious context where that is paradigmatic for everything that defines the Shia as a division of Islam. The reason why they are Shia is because they are standing against someone who usurped the rightful Caliph over a millennium and a half ago. This political/religious protest runs very, very deep in the blood of the Shia.

Furthermore, Shia glorifies martyrdom, because the rightful heir to the Caliphate was martyred. They pray to him as Roman Catholics pray to Mary. In fact, Khamenei in his sermon last Friday prayed to him. To invoke the martyr is to glorify martyrdom. Shia regularly practice self flagellation. Read this quote:

Those adults who engage in self-flagellation with knives, chains or blades, do so with a consciousness of the ceremonial nature of the act, keenly watched by onlookers, children and adults alike, who, though they have seen it all before, continue to be mesmerised by the sheer spectacle of it – the display. This excitement is, for most, mixed with an actual sense of profound identification with the suffering of Imam Hussain, grandson of the Prophet Muhammad. Islamic history tells us that Hussain, a venerated saint in Shism, stood up to the tyrant of the day, Yazid, 14 centuries ago in order to save Islam and humanity from despotism and oppression, and to make the ultimate point about justice. During the 10-day siege, Hussain's camp suffered unimaginable trials and tribulations, which, to many Muslims, not just Shias, has no equal.

As you can see, martyrdom is more than just important in Shia Islam. They idealize martyrdom and even flagellate themselves as a matter of religious devotion. Furthermore, for Shia Muslims, there is no line separating church and state. Politics is religion is politics. Ahmadinejad is a heretic because he is a usurper to the rightfully elected President. Khamenei is a heretic as well because he is the one who allowed the election to be rigged and endorsed the usurper, making him a usurper himself. Thus the crowds have been chanting "Death to Khamenei".

The government can crack down all it wants, it can shed blood in the streets of Tehran all it wants, but the Shia Muslims of Iran will keep coming back for more, crying out, "Allah-o Akbar!" (God is great) the whole time.

The other day I was watching a video of the protesters, and it occurred to me that they looked like worshipers. It seemed just by watching them that what they were doing was a matter of religious devotion. Turns out that's very, very true.

When they cry out "Ya Hussein!" this is what they are referring to; all of it. Hussein is the name of the martyr, the grandson of Muhammed.

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Captain America Strikes Again!

Rich Lowry, you're an idiot. Captain America strikes again.

Once upon a time I was a committed Republican. Now I realize that they, just like the majority of all politicians, are not committed to truth and justice, but to grabbing whatever political power and influence they can, even if that means exploiting ignorant Americans at the expense of the lives of Iranian protesters.

Look, it's people actually in Iran and taking part in the protests that are begging the world to stay out of it. The regime in Iran are masters of propaganda, and they can twist anything Obama says. Khamenei demonstrated earlier today in his very rare public appearance for a Friday sermon that he's even capable of making stuff up altogether. So, the less Obama says, the better.

Everyone in Iran is distrustful of foreign influence. They have long memories. Remember Alexander the Great? They're still mad about that over there. You remember, the young Greek lad that defeated the entire Persian army and overthrew the greatest empire on earth at the time? What does that have to do with us? Foreign influence.

Khamenei is already trying to portray the protesters as being puppets of the Wicked Witch of the West (that's US). Obama doesn't want to help him make his case in any way. The Iranian people are very fragile when it comes to their Supreme Leader.

I know - we Americans can't understand that. We hate authority. As soon as someone makes some claim to truth we think it's a power grab and immediately lash out against them as a tyrrannical oppressor, and how DARE you?! Yes, we hate authority in any and all forms. "We don't need no education...teachers leave us kids alone!"

But in Iran, it's different. Authority is respected. Authority means something. The people are very religious. They believe things that we can't even comprehend. It's a delicate situation, Captain America. Read Peggy Noonan. Listen to Henry Kissenger. Listen to the protesters themselves. You can't just go in there like an 18 year old punk, snot nosed kid fresh out of boot camp ready for blood.

Calm down and let the adults handle things. Go play in your sandbox and pretend the world is your chessboard, neo-con.

Cracks in Khamenei's Power are Showing

Iranians, along with the rest of the world, are beginning to question Khamenei's legitimacy as a ruler, says Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic & International Studies think tank in Washington, D.C. The leadership in Iran is "more divided than ever".

Al Jazeera also sees threats to Khamenei's power.

It's not just one crazy guy's opinion anymore. Real analysts with real clout are starting to say the same thing. Not that I've had anything to do with it. My stat counter is at like 25. :)

Khamenei's Speech: Invoking the West

Khamenei's speech made numerous references to the West: the US, the EU, the UK and Israel. Using this translation and the "find" function in my web browser, I'm going to try to find all the references to the US. Why? Because I want to demonstrate that Obama's policy of basic silence on this matter is the correct stance to take.

First he says, "The Zionist, American and British radio are all trying to say that there was a competition between those who support and those who didn't support the state - everyone supported the state." By "everyone" Khamenei means all the candidates. He is complaining that the Western media is saying that the dispute between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi is a dispute between those who want to preserve the state and those who want to overturn it. He's saying that that's simply untrue. Notice what he's trying to do here. He's trying to force people in the opposition to acknowledge, even if only in their hearts, that they don't want to overturn the state. He's saying, "You don't want to be like the Americans or the Zionist dogs do you? You don't want to overturn the state." It seems like such a small thing he's asking the Iranians to acknowledge, but this is actually a very important psychological move. He's trying to get people to draw lines in their own mind and say to themselves, "Well, I may protest, but I'm sure not gonna cross that line!" He's trying to keep protests from turning into a revolution. So Khamenei agrees with me that revolution is in fact in the air, and he's trying to stop it, invoking powerful images of the evil Wicked Witch of the West to do so.

Next, he says, "First, before the elections, their [US and EU] media orientation and their statements made was they wanted to cast out the hearts of the people a feeling that the election was useless to cut the turn out..." His point here is that prior to the election, Western media was trying to convince people in Iran not to bother voting, because the election was largely meaningless. He goes on to praise the huge 85% turnout on election day, praising Iran for proving the Wicked Witch of the West wrong. Then he goes on to say that when the evil West saw the results (the protests), that they saw an opportunity, and their masks came off and they revealed their true nature.

He said, "a number of heads of states and other leaders of EU and America made statements that clarified the true nature of those leaders. It was said on behalf of the US president that he was waiting for a day that people came out to streets." What he's saying here is not entirely clear to me. President Obama said no such thing, nor nothing that implied it. Yet notice how he says that someone said it on behalf of the President. See how careful Obama must be in what he says? So even though publicly Obama has said that there isn't much difference for the US between the candidates, Khamenei is trying to impute statements to him. He's trying to associate him with the opposition movement. He is a seasoned veteran deceiver and his rhetoric seems pretty powerful to me. It's easy for people who don't know better to believe this stuff. But it's even easier if there's actual sound bites and video footage of President Obama saying things in favor of one side or the other. He goes on to blame European and American "agents" on the "riots" vandalism and starting fires, etc. But a picture is worth a thousand words:

Then Khamenei gets bizarre. He said, "An American Zionist capitalist some time ago claimed that he had spent ten million dollars and created velvet revolution in Georgia. They are comparing the Islamic Republic with GEORGIA!?" Now, that's very odd, because the Velvet Revolution is the name for the "Gentle Revolution" that happened in the old Czechoslovakia in 1989. Understanding exactly what he means is probably impossible. He is, after all, a madman. But his point isn't so hard to understand. He's trying to say that the US has already admitted to being involved in a revolution involving Muslims, and he's saying that WE are saying that we'll be more than happy to do the same thing here. Our capitalist greed by which we amass wealth to ourselves will be put to use in service of buying a revolution in Iran. He's just trying to build suspicion in the hearts of the gullible. Now, at first gloss, we might say, ah, what a loon, and blow him off. It's much harder for Iranians to just blow him off, even if they think he's out to lunch. He's like the Pope in Iran. He's the Supreme Leader of the whole country. It's hard to just ignore him. And yet I think many will, because he does not cite evidence for it. He only says that someone, somewhere, once upon a time, made some claim....they are paranoid rantings of a madman, and anyone with common sense can see that.

He goes on to say that Americans have no moral high ground because we are oppressing the people of Iraq and Afghanistan, and...then there was that Waco, Tx incident: "What is the worst thing to me in all this are comments made in the name of human rights and freedom and liberty made by American officials they said that we are worried about Iranian nations WHAT? Are you serious? Do you KNOW what human rights are?! Who did that in Afghanistan? The wars and bloodshed Who is crushing Iraq under its soldier's boots? in Palestine? Who supported the Zionists? even inside America During the time of the democrats Time of Clinton 80 people were burned alive in Waco? Now you are talking about human rights?" I leave it to the reader to sort this out.

Well, my whole point is just to say that in Iran, it's kind of cool to invoke the West, especially the US. However, there is one very unusual thing about Khamenei's speech. There's one place where we would have thought he would mention the US, but he didn't.

He said, "I will tell you, diplomats of other countries in the past few days have taken away their masks and showing their true image. The most evil of them all is the British Government." Now I'm sure that when he said that, the Brits were positively choking on their crumpets and reaching for their tea to wash it down. But notice that for once it wasn't the US who was named as the most evil. I think that's significant, given the fact that Iran is literally surrounded by US troops in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not proud of the US that we're somehow thought of not quite so badly by an evil dictator. Far from it. Nonetheless, it shows that the US is a little bit less of a "political football" as Obama called it. This is good. It means Obama is successfully avoiding fueling Khamenei's rhetoric. It's a little bit harder for him to paint the opposition as another "velvet revolution in Georgia". Stop that giggling.

Khamenei's Speech: Why don't you believe me?

If you want to read about the most significant point of the speech, and to know what speech I'm talking about, see here.

The second thing in the speech I'd like to talk about is Khamenei's discussion of the election results. It would be funny if it weren't so tragic and wicked.

"If the difference was 100,000 or 500,000 or 1 million, well, one may say fraud could have happened. But how can one rig 11 million votes?" Khamenei asked.

OH! So THAT'S why he rigged the results in such a ridiculous fashion! 11 million made up votes can't be wrong!

But it's obvious it was rigged.

Khamenei's Speech: Prelude to a Bloodbath

Today is Friday, sort of the Islamic Sabbath (not really, but for Westerners it's a helpful analogy). Today, Supreme Leader Khamenei gave a sermon at Tehran University, where ironically, just a few days ago a number of students were beaten at random and some were killed.

Here are my sources on this historically important speech: The NY Times, Amnesty International, Aljazeera, the Huffington Post here and here, and here's an English translation of the speech. However, most important of all is this brilliant piece from the Council on Foreign Relations (never mind the date - it's been updated to reflect the speech).

All of these sources are worth reading, but you should definitely read the piece from the CFR. In fact, I'd rather you read that piece than this blog post. It's absolutely brilliant and spot on. (It's pretty much everything I've been saying.) But I'm still going to post about the speech anyway.

The most significant thing about the speech is that it contained a warning to the opposition that they should get ready for a bloodbath. Everything I've read about the speech agrees on that point.

Some think this will bring the protests to an end. That's simply untrue. Events of the last couple of days shows us that violence only strengthens the opposition. Not only that, but the CFR piece reminds us of what happened 30 years ago when the Shah of Iran cracked down on the opposition violently: protests "mushroomed".

Listen, I don't like violence anymore than you do. Violence is evil and bad. It should be avoided. But revolutions are always founded on the blood of martyrs. What revolution has ever happened in the history of the world that hasn't had much blood shed to accompany it? Our own Revolutionary War cost many lives, as did our Civil War, which was arguably revolutionary.

But listen: let's not have an American knee-jerk reaction to the violence in Iran. Rather, let us sit in quiet awe of the bravery of the Iranian people who valiantly strap on their green ribbons and walk out their front door to face they know not what in the streets where they live. Let us watch with tears in our eyes, and let us pray that it will all be over soon, and that the Supreme Leader will fall, and his office with him. The Iranian people think that that's worth dying for. I agree with them. Once upon a time, Americans thought there were some things worth dying for. So let us sit back and watch respectfully and honorably as a courageous people reinvent themselves at tremendous cost.

There will be much more violence to come. Let us not lose heart at this critical time. The Iranian people will need our support and encouragement, not our cries to bring it all to an end. Such cries will only make them lose heart when they need it most.

And how are the protesters reacting? The Huffington Report says, "In reaction to Khamenei's address hours later, cries of 'Death to the dictator! and 'Allahu akbar!' ('God is great!') resounded from rooftops throughout Tehran after dark - similar to other nights this week following rallies supporting reformist candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi."

What do they mean "dictator"? Who are they referring to: Ahmadinejad or Khamenei? I rather think it's Khamenei, since, after all, they have not been saying that all week, but this is clearly in reaction to Khamenei's speech. That the people have been crying "God is great!" from the rooftops is pregnant with meaning. This was what they did 30 years ago in rebellion against the Shah. This is an Islamic creed, a profession of faith. At the same time, it is a crying out to God for justice. No matter what your religious conviction, the video below is moving when seen in this light.

Revolution is brewing in Iran.